Friday, May 6, 2011

Musing About the Next 10 Years

I, like most people, I imagine, like to sit and think about what the world will be like in the future. I've been wondering about what the chances are that we'll face a significant military or terrorist threat in the next 5 or 10 years... could we be nuked? Invaded? What are the chances? The following is pure speculation with a bit of current events thrown in. Enjoy if you're curious. :)

USAToday makes a few predictions. 334-350 million people, Non-Hispanic whites drop from 65 to 60% of the population, and...the rest isn't relevant to my apocalyptic state of mind.. heheh.

Okay, my motivation for musing is that I saw a brief documentary on youtube called Iranium. Clever name. It points out that
a) Iran is big, and is building enrichment sites underground. It's unlikely that all of them are accounted for. It's not certain that Israel will know when they have acquired a bomb, though one could hope for Divine guidance.
b) Iran can easily detonate a warhead high in the atmosphere from 100 miles offshore the East Coast of the United States, and we won't be able to stop it. The EMP would destroy our electric grid. I'm curious to learn about predictions for how long it'd stay down, because the time without power will be the main factor in how many people die--the movie predicted several months, and 9 out of 10 Americans dying as a result.

That's if they don't decide to detonate a nuke in an American city.

A friend of mine pointed out that Iran won't be able to attack Israel because Israel will hit back first. He appealed to Bible prophecy and suggested that a direct nuke would destroy Israel, since it's a small country, and therefore it probably won't happen. One, I'm not so sure. Two, I think if Iran decides to nuke anyone, it seems tempted to go for the US first. Two reasons: we are the Great Satan, whereas Israel is only the Little Satan. Also, if we're knocked out of the picture, then they won't have any problem attacking Israel.

I think Iran will have nukes within the next 2 years for sure, probably 1 year, and it's possible they already have them. The question is how many the want before they can't contain themselves and decide to use them on someone.

Iran is acquiring missiles from Russia that can reach 3,000 km in range. That could hit each European capital if they ship the weapons to their pawn Hezbollah in Lebanon. And it could hit the US from Venezuela....from as far south as Nicaragua, DC is in range.

The main question, I guess, is two fold:
a) will the next attack on America be a terrorist attack, or will it be an act of war by Iran (realistically, the only difference will be who does the act, not actually what is done).
b) is Israel or America or Europe going to be the first on the menu when anyone in the ME gets ahold of a Nuke?

I'm anticipating two scenarios. In the event of an EMP, I want to be somewhere where I can hunt for food and be far away from excessive population, i.e. the coasts or the southern border.  In the event of a nuke attack on a city, I want to be far away from high-priority target cities, again the coast and southern border will deter me.

So I'm toying with the idea of relocating in a central and northern manner. If I'm over 100 miles away from any large city, I'll be mostly safe from radiation, and 250 miles ought to be quite effective in neutralizing any real danger of getting irradiated by the lingering toxicity. I'm strongly considering one of the Great Lake states.

I'm just anxious to have any coming attack be delayed. In 10 years--perfect. 5, I might not be ready. I'm still finishing my education, after all. And I'm not uber-paranoid about being near a city. The threat isn't record-high yet, but it's enough to make me want to plan wisely for the future, since I consider our government to be completely useless in our defense.

Things to do:
* Move away from cities
* Move somewhere with good wildlife, so that I can hunt if an EMP takes out our food distribution network
* Acquire stockpiles of food and fuel, and maybe a generator if I can.
* Unplug and turn everything off at night (got to do with the EMP).

So, what happens in an EMP?
The circles are the affected area at 30, 120, and 300 miles into the atmosphere, of a nuclear device being detonated. The effect is essentially only EMP damage. Which is hardly negligible, but there will be little to no radiation or structural damage, except what results from secondary causes.

Heh, I'm happy enough to link to good links I've come across as I'm writing this:

And this one:

Flying airplanes would crash. Didn't think of that one. Any airplane that wasn't fly-by-wire, but uses electronic guidance, wouldn't even be able to steer. Dang. Scary thought.

If I'm not mistaken, an induced electric charge in people's pacemakers would probably fry their heart. So eat healthy and never need a pacemaker implant!

Credit cards also won't work. Hopefully you have cash, and not only in a bank account.

Actually, that second link is really engrossing. Kinda like reading a zombie apocalypse scenario.

Another observation: make sure you have a private propane tank outside your house...

Considering that other countries won't be hit by the EMP (unless we're talking a solar flare or if someone's been shooting up EMPs all over the place), other countries will be able to ship parts to us in order to get the grid back up and running. Especially when they start starving because we export 20% of the world's food, so they'll be more motivated, suddenly. With this in mind, most of the grid ought to be up again within a year or two. But the short term effects will be catastrophic.

Hence why it would be unwise to move where it'll be hot in the summer, or too cold in the winter. But I, personally, prefer the cold to the heat. It's a Nordic thing. My ancestors wielded axes in the newly-defrosted Svea Rike. I can bundle up.

I have to say, to an extent, it's fun to imagine civilization-destroying scenarios. There's something deep within every person (or at least every man, he he) that finds the concept of providing for yourself very satisfying and exciting, and face it--such an event would force you to provide for yourself and your family, or die.

The link includes two observations:
1. the spectrum of EMP damage ranges from no loss of life and $20B in damages, to 90% of the population being wiped out
2. This was posted in 2005, and it expressed concern over Iran testing missiles by firing them high into the atmosphere.

Get ready, America. We don't know how long it will be, but Iran is buddy-buddy with Venezuela, and they could install Hezbollah within its borders and use that country as a springboard for launching an offshore nuke to a high altitude and destroying civilization as we know it.

Since they'll be coming from the south and east, I'm moving north and west. Time to hunt Caribou, Elk, Beaver and Moose.

Just hope they'll kindly take my schedule into consideration and wait 'til I'm ready.

I know not a lot of people read this blog yet, but if you find this topic interesting, share your ideas and how you're preparing for the future as it regards terrorism in the US, if you live there.


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